Russian Air Defense Experts Arrive in Iran

Sources indicate that a Russian air defense team arrived in Iran in early September to present its findings to the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF). The team, none of whom arrived in uniform, is composed of Russian Air Force intelligence officers, at least two engineers from the Almaz-Antei manufacturing plant, a Belarusian military or intelligence official and several unidentified individuals. They will also review the military drills that began on September 15, to further evaluate early warning, as well as command and control, and deployment responsiveness. In recent months, the Iranian military has been more receptive to Russian advisors, perhaps due to the increasing likelihood of an attack by Israel and/or the U.S.

The IRIAF has a number of serious problems that cannot be resolved in the near-term. The radar and missile coverage above 35,000 feet (9000 meters) is weak and disparate, and the modern air defense assets available for coverage in the range of 15,000-35,000 feet (4500-10,600 meters) are deficient in quantity and mobility, and not adequately deployed. However, the Russian experts will reportedly recommend new tactical deployment models, particularly for the Tor-M1, based on extensive simulation studies conducted in Moscow and Minsk this past spring. This will at least reduce the vulnerabilities of the dozen Iranian sites currently designated to be covered by this new weapons systems.

The expert data is significantly improved from previously provided information because of the following features: (1) more accurate topographic and weather data of central and western Iran; (2) results from SIGINT intercepts of recent Israeli military exercises in Greece; (3) improved data from Israel's strike on a nuclear facility in Syria; and (4) more accurate cruise missile flight data (particularly for launches from the Black Sea, eastern Turkey, northern Iraq and Georgia). The data will help the IRIAF’s command and control refine its action plan for the most effective deployment of Tor-M1 batteries in any given scenario in near real-time, despite having only 29 launchers in operation.

The visiting experts will also test several air defense scenarios at the Iranian IRBM site at Tabriz, though it is unclear at the moment whether the test will be a virtual simulation or will involve Tor-M1 batteries on the ground. The Tabriz missile complex is one of the top non-nuclear related sites Iran wishes to protect from a potential Israeli/US attack.

SUBNOTO Launch Date: 5 Sep. 2008

"Subnoto", Latin meaning to secretly notice, will launch in September. Come back soon...